FC St. Pauli vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Matchup Analysis

FC St. Pauli

Home

1. FSV Mainz 05

Away

Bundesliga

Kick-off in —

Betting Insights

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

2 — 1. FSV Mainz 05

Medium

🎯 Both Teams To Score

YES

62.5% probability

Medium

🔢 Over / Under 2.5 Goals

UNDER 2.5

54.1% probability Expected: 2.2 goals

Medium

🔢 Over / Under 1.5 Goals

OVER 1.5

87.5% probability

High

🔢 Over / Under 3.5 Goals

UNDER 3.5

20.8% probability Expected: 2.2 goals

High

🔄 Double Chance

All results

1X 50.8%

X2 80.2%

12 69.0%

High

🟨 Total Cards

Under 3.5 Cards

Expected: 3.1 cards

Medium

🚩 Total Corners

Under 7.5

47.5% probability Expected: 7.5 corners

Medium

🧤 Clean Sheet

No Clean Sheet

Low

Poisson Model — Probability Breakdown

FC St. Pauli

12.4% 32.1% 55.5%

1. FSV Mainz 05

WINDRAWWIN

0.48 – 1.29

Expected Goals (xG)

29.0%

BTTS Probability

26.1%

Over 2.5 Goals

54.2%

Over 1.5 Goals

Poisson model · Home advantage ×1.12 applied

Stats Comparison (Last 15 Matches)

0.76 Avg Goals Scored 1.44

FC St. Pauli 1. FSV Mainz 05

1.76 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18

FC St. Pauli 1. FSV Mainz 05

58.3 BTTS % 66.7

FC St. Pauli 1. FSV Mainz 05

50.0 Over 2.5 % 58.3

FC St. Pauli 1. FSV Mainz 05

2.76 Avg Corners 4.77

FC St. Pauli 1. FSV Mainz 05

1.24 Avg Yellow Cards 1.78

FC St. Pauli 1. FSV Mainz 05

4.14 Avg Shots on Target 4.14

FC St. Pauli 1. FSV Mainz 05

16.7 Clean Sheet % 16.7

FC St. Pauli 1. FSV Mainz 05

Head to Head (Last 10)

FC St. Pauli

Draws

1. FSV Mainz 05

21 Dec 2025 1. FSV Mainz 05 0 – 0 FC St. Pauli Bundesliga

Individual Team Stats (Last 15)

FC St. Pauli Full Stats

0.76

Avg GF

1.76

Avg GA

58.3%

BTTS

50.0%

Over 2.5

Form: DLDLLDWWLWLD

1. FSV Mainz 05 Full Stats

1.44

Avg GF

1.18

Avg GA

66.7%

BTTS

58.3%

Over 2.5

Form: LWWWDDDLWWWL

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